New analysis shows the need for humanitarian assistance is rising rapidly across the Middle East, Africa and Asia as a direct result of the US–Iran conflict. While immediate impacts are being felt in the Indo-Pacific region, the crisis is also compounding fragile economic and social conditions in countries such as Sudan, Gaza, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Yemen and Myanmar, reversing hard‑won development gains.

Analysis by the Australian Council for International Development (ACFID), drawing on real‑time insights from member organisations operating on the ground, provides a snapshot of the projected global humanitarian impacts of the conflict in countries where ACFID members are active.

Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz has driven sharp increases in oil, gas and fertiliser prices, raising global transport and production costs as economies around the world are put under significant pressure. The World Food Programme (WFP) is already predicting the pressures on food prices and essential goods could see an additional 45 million people facing acute food insecurity by the middle of the year.

The Australian aid and development sector is present across the globe, at the forefront with communities already experiencing disruption. Fuel shortages, rising transport costs, disrupted supply routes and growing security risks are delaying deliveries and forcing aid agencies to review operations at the very moment needs are surging. Every delay caused by fuel shortages, border disruptions or insecurity means families in vulnerable communities wait longer for food, clinics run short of medicine, and aid workers face greater risks simply trying to do their jobs.

The Pacific Islands are especially vulnerable. As some of the world’s most import‑dependent economies, Pacific Island countries have experienced fuel and food shocks almost immediately. Higher fuel prices drive-up electricity and water production costs, disrupt transport and service delivery, and increase the cost of imported staples such as rice, wheat and flour. Prolonged pressure risks governments having to divert limited resources away from important longer term development priorities such as climate adaptation, health and education programs toward short‑term subsidies.

Quotes attributable to Matthew Maury, ACFID CEO:

“This conflict is sending shockwaves far beyond the battlefield and we are seeing development in reverse for vulnerable communities around our region and the globe.

“Communities already on the brink are being hit first and hardest by this conflict’s economic fallout, with rising fuel, food and fertiliser prices pushing them deeper into crisis, particularly in countries already grappling with conflict, displacement and climate shocks. Millions of people are going backwards. Famine alarm bells are ringing in many places as planting seasons are being missed.

As the conflict escalates, it is becoming significantly harder—and more expensive—for aid to reach people who need it most. Without urgent international action, these pressures will undo years of development progress.”

For more information or to arrange an interview, please contact ACFID Media at [email protected] or call 0401 721 064. 

Full analysis is available here